2.1
Which effects can be expected of long-term
exposure to levels of Ozone observed currently
in Europe?
2.1.1 Chronic effects
at current Ozonz levels
2.1.2 Effects on mortality
at current Ozone levels
2.1.1 Chronic effects at current Ozone
levels
WHO
states:
"Answer:
There are few epidemiological
studies on the chronic effects of ozone
on human health. Incidence of asthma,
a decreased lung
function growth, lung cancer and total
mortality are the main outcomes studied.
At levels currently observed in Europe,
the evidence linking O3 exposure
to asthma incidence and prevalence in
children and adults is not consistent.
Available evidence suggests that long-term
O3 exposure reduces lung function
growth in children. There is little evidence
for an independent long-term O3
effect on lung cancer or total mortality.
The plausibility of chronic
damage to the human lung from prolonged
O3 exposure is supported by
the results of a series of chronic animal
exposure studies.
Rationale:
Incidence of asthma was
studied in adults (228), in California
in the AHSMOG (Adventist Health Smog)
study. A cohort of 3 091 non-smokers,
aged 27 to 87, was followed over15 years
(1977 to 1992). For males, a significant
relationship between reports of doctor
diagnosed asthma and 20-year mean 8-hour
average ambient
ozone concentration (relative risk = 2.09
(1.03–4.18)) for an inter-quartile
range of 54 µg/m3 (27
ppb) was found. Use of alternative O3
metrics, such as hours above a certain
level, showed the strongest effect in
relation to the mean ozone concentration,
followed by 8-hour average concentration
and then by hours exceeding a certain
threshold value. No relationship was observed
in females. Adjustment for other pollutants
did not diminish the strength of the relationship.
The prospective nature, a small loss to
follow-up and a detailed measure of the
cumulative air pollution exposure (incorporating
accurate individual interpolations using
residence and work location (229) strengthen
the validity of these results. The small
number of cases (32 males and 79 females),
a potential misclassification of self-reported
diagnosis, an imprecise time-pattern in
the measures of outcome and past-exposure
(residence was measured three times in
15 years), and a lack of consistency between
the two genders undermines the validity
of results. Hence, low quality of outcome
diagnosis might not allow a clear distinction
between incidence and exacerbation. Although
gender differences were not among the
prior hypotheses but were a result of
subgroup analyses, the lack of effect
in females could be a phenomenon due to
a differential exposure by gender.
In a cohort
study of 3 535 children, aged 10 to
16 years with no history of asthma
recruited in 12 communities in the Southern
California study and followed during 5
years, the relative risk of developing
asthma among children playing three or
more sports (8 % of the children) was
3.3 (1.9–5.8) compared with children
playing no sports in communities with
high ozone concentrations (four year average
of 112 µg/m3 to 138 µg/m3
(56 to 69 ppb)), but not in communities
of low ozone (230). This effect modification
of ozone was not seen for the other standard
pollutants. The longitudinal nature of
the study and the low proportion of subjects
lost during follow-up strengthen these
results. In the same study in Southern
California, prevalence of asthma was not
associated with ozone levels among the
12 studied communities (231). On the contrary,
prevalence of asthma increased with average
levels of O3 among the 2 445
13 to 14 year-old children of 7 communities
participating in the French ISAAC study
(International Study on Childhood Asthma
and Allergy) (232), and among the 165
173 high school students aged 11 to 16
from 24 areas in the Taiwan ISAAC study
(233), but in the French study, analysis
at the individual level did not show an
association. However, difficulties in
diagnosis of asthma using self-reporting
of symptoms and limitations of prevalence
studies with no control of in/out migration
could explain these differences.
lung
function growth was studied in three
prospective studies with repeated measures
in the same subjects. In nine areas without
major industrial sites in Austria, 1 150
children aged 8 to 11 were followed during
3 years (1994–1997) performing 6
lung function tests (234). The change
in lung function (FVC, FEV1 and MEF50)
between the pre and post-summer test was
negatively associated with the O3
mean concentration (with a personal interpolation).
A 10 ppb (20 µg/m3) difference
in average O3 exposure was
associated with a small but significant
predicted decrement of 2 %. The wintertime
change in O3 was also negatively
associated with the lung function change,
but the association was weaker. The use
of peak O3 concentrations instead
of average O3 levels resulted
in a non-significant association. The
analysis of only those children who did
not change their town of residence increased
the association. Presence of asthma did
not modify this association. A further
analysis showed the effect of O3
to be independent of particles and nitrogen
dioxide (235).
These results were not
replicated by the first of the Southern
California cohort studies (22). More than
3 000 children from 12 communities around
Los Angeles were followed during 4 years
(from 1993 to1997) and lung
function tests were performed annually.
A negative effect of O3 on
lung growth was not observed. A low variation
of O3 and a high variation
in particulate
matter among these Californian communities
could explain the lack of the effect.
However, a second study following 1 678
children of nine to ten years from 1996
to 2000 in the same 12 communities showed
that exposure to O3 (expressed
as the annual average of the concentration
between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m.) was associated
to reduced growth in peak flow rate (PEF),
as well as to FVC and FEV1 growth among
children spending more time outdoors (23).
However, there was a greater negative
association with acid vapours, NO2,
and PM2.5
than for O3 in this cohort.
The repeated measures among the same children
give more validity to these studies than
to the cross-sectional studies.
Cross-sectional studies
are not fully consistent. In the same
study in South California, lung function
level was lower in communities with higher
ozone in comparison to communities with
lower O3 average levels, particularly
among girls with asthma and spending more
time outdoors (236). In a study on 24
communities in the United States and Canada
among 10 251 children between the age
of 8 and 12 a negative association with
several O3 exposure metrics
was found for FVC and FEV1, although the
association with FVC was reduced after
adjustment for strongly acidic particles.
O3 and acidic particles were
highly correlated in the study areas (78).
Among adults, in the 1
391 non-smokers of the AHSMOG study a
decrement of FEV1 in relation to cumulative
O3 exposure was observed in
males whose parents had asthma (237),
as well as in a sample of 130 UC Berkeley
freshmen (238), while an association between
O3 and lung function was not
found in the 9 651 adults residing in
the eight areas of the SAPALDIA study
(Swiss study on air pollution and lung
diseases in adults) (93). However, this
study did not have adequate power to assess
the O3 effect (range of long-term
O3 average was 31 to 51 µg/m3
or 15.5 to 25.5 ppb).
Symptoms of bronchitis
did not increase in children from communities
with higher levels of O3 among
the 3 676 children participating in the
south California study (88), as they similarly
did not increase among the 9 651 adults
in the Swiss communities with higher O3
participating in the SAPALDIA study (94).
Lung cancer both incidence
(239) and mortality (9) was strongly associated
with long-term concentrations of ozone
among males of the 6 338 non-smoking adults
participating in the AHSMOG study and
followed from 1977 to 1992. Differences
in exposure to O3 (males in
the study spent more time outdoors) could
explain the gender differences. It was
difficult to separate the effect from
ozone and particles, since a similar association
was obtained with particles and correlation
between particles and ozone was high (9).
The ACS cohort
study (13) did not find any association
of long-term O3 exposure and
lung cancer or total mortality.
The plausibility of chronic
damage to the human lung from prolonged
O3 exposure is supported by
the results of a series of chronic animal
exposure studies, especially those in
rats (240, 241) using a daily cycle with
a 180 ppb (360µg/m3)
average over nine hours superimposed on
a 13-hr base of 60 ppb (120µg/m3),
and those in monkeys of Hyde et al. (242)
and Tyler et al. (243) applying 8 hours
per day of 150 and 250 ppb (300 and 500µg/m3).
The persistent cellular and morphometric
changes produced by these exposures in
the terminal bronchioles and proximal
alveolar region and the functional changes
are consistent with a stiffening of the
lung reported by Raub et al, (244) and
Tyler et al. (243)."
Source
& © : WHO
Regional Office for Europe "Health
Aspects of Air Pollution" (2003),
Chapter 6 Ozone (O3), Section
6.2 Answer and rationales, Question 2
2.1.2 Effects on
mortality at current Ozone levels
To what extent is mortality
being accelerated by long and short-term
exposure to Ozone?
WHO
states:
"Answer:
Long-term O3
effects have been studied in two cohort
studies. There is little evidence of an
independent long-term O3 effect
on mortality so that no major loss of
years of life is expected. The issue of
harvesting, i.e. the advancement of mortality
by only relatively few days, has not been
addressed in short-term exposure studies
of O3.
Rationale:
For the long-term effects
of O3 see the answer and rationale
to Question 2. In short-term studies,
the issue of harvesting, i.e., the advancement
of mortality by only few days has not
been studied for O3 effects.
A few studies have addressed this issue
for the effects of PM10
or PM2.5
and it was found that mortality displacement
was substantial for most causes of death
and harvesting could not explain all the
excess mortality (see also answer and
rationale to question 5 in the PM section).
Whether there are also persistent effects
of O3 as well, has not been
determined."
Source
& © : WHO
Regional Office for Europe "Health
Aspects of Air Pollution" (2003),
Chapter 6 Ozone (O3), Section
6.2 Answer and rationales, Question 5
|