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"The global climate of the 21st Century
(a)
CO2 emissions
(b)
CO2 concentrations
(c)
SO2 emissions
(d)
Temperature change
(e)
Sea level rise
Figure 5: The global climate of the 21st century will depend on natural
changes and the response of the climate system to human activities.
Climate models project the response of many climate variables - such as increases
in global surface temperature and sea level - to various scenarios of greenhouse
gas and other human-related emissions.
- (a) shows the CO2 emissions of the six illustrative SRES
scenarios, which are summarised in the box on page 18, along with IS92a
for comparison purposes with the SAR.
- (b) shows projected CO2 concentrations.
- (c) shows anthropogenic
SO2 emissions. Emissions of other gases and other aerosols were included in
the model but are not shown in the figure.
- (d) and (e) show the projected temperature and sea level
responses, respectively. The "several models all SRES envelope" in (d) and
(e) shows the temperature and sea level rise, respectively, for the simple
model when tuned to a number of complex models with a range of climate sensitivities.
All SRES envelopes refer to the full range of 35 SRES scenarios. The "model
average all SRES envelope" shows the average from these models for the range
of scenarios. Note that the warming and sea level rise from these emissions
would continue well beyond 2100. Also note that this range does not allow for
uncertainty relating to ice dynamical changes in the West Antarctic ice sheet,
nor does it account for uncertainties in projecting non-sulphate aerosols and
greenhouse gas concentrations.
[Based upon
(a) Chapter
3, Figure
3.12,
(b) Chapter
3, Figure
3.12,
(c) Chapter
5, Figure
5.13,
(d) Chapter
9, Figure
9.14,
(e) Chapter
11, Figure
11.12,
Appendix
II]"
Source
& © : IPCC
TAR SPM of WG1
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