Click to enlarge
Figure 21: Analysis of inter-model consistency in regional relative warming (warming relative to each model's global average warming).

Regions are classified as showing either

• agreement on warming in excess of 40% above the global average (‘Much greater than average warming'),
• agreement on warming greater than the global average (‘Greater than average warming'),
• agreement on warming less than the global average (‘Less than average warming'), or
• disagreement amongst models on the magnitude of regional relative warming (‘Inconsistent magnitude of warming').

There is also a category for agreement on cooling (which never occurs).

A consistent result from at least seven of the nine models is deemed necessary for agreement. The global annual average warming of the models used span 1.2 to 4.5°C for A2 and 0.9 to 3.4°C for B2, and therefore a regional 40% amplification represents warming ranges of 1.7 to 6.3°C for A2 and 1.3 to 4.7°C for B2.

[Based on Chapter 10, Box 1 , Figure 1]