This page is a straight copy of the Summary for Policymakers
of the Third Assessment Report
done by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC),
which can be found in PDF format in the box on page 18 of  http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/spm22-01.pdf
or in HTML format at the bottom of http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/008.htm.
The Emissions Scenarios
from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
The titles for each scenario were provided
by GreenFacts
and therefore do not correspond to the IPCC report
A1. Rapid Global Growth Scenario.The
A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid
economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines
thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.
Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building
and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction
in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops
into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological
change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by
their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy
sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B) (where balanced is
defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on
the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply
and end use technologies).
A2. Regional Growth Scenario. The
A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world.
The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities.
Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results
in continuously increasing population. Economic development is primarily
regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change
more fragmented and slower than other storylines.
B1. Global Service Economy Scenario.
The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world
with the same global population, that peaks in midcentury and declines
thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change in economic
structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in
material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient
technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social
and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without
additional climate initiatives.
B2. Increasing Population Scenario.
The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis
is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability.
It is a world with continuously increasing global population, at a rate
lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic evelopment, and less rapid
and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines.
While the scenario is also oriented towards environmental protection and
social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.
An illustrative scenario was chosen for each of the six
scenario groups A1B, A1FI, A1T, A2, B1 and B2. All should be considered
equally sound.
The SRES
scenarios do not include additional climate initiatives, which means
that no scenarios are included that explicitly assume implementation of
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or the emissions
targets of the Kyoto Protocol.
This page is a straight copy of the Summary for Policymakers
of the Third Assessment Report
done by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC),
which can be found in PDF format in the box on page 18 of http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/spm22-01.pdf
or in HTML format at the bottom of http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/008.htm.
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