Expert Links on Climate Change

Contributors: IPCC references come from  
IPCC WG II SPM,
other references are selected by
GreenFacts

4. What are the likely consequences of climate change?

4.1 Has climate change already affected us?

4.1.1. Has climate change already started to affect natural systems?

The following IPCC documents from the
WG II Technical Summary support the Level 3 passage:

• 2.1. Detecting responses to climate change using indicator species or systems
• 4.3. Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems
• 4.4. Coastal zones and marine ecosystems
• 5.7. Polar regions
• 7.1. Detection of climate change impacts

4.1.2. Has climate change already affected human systems?

The following IPCC documents from the
WG II Technical Summary support the Level 3 passage:

• 7.1. Detection of climate change impacts

4.2. How potentially could climate change affect us?

4.2.1. How potentially could climate change affect natural systems?

The following IPCC documents from the
WG II Technical Summary support the Level 3 passage:

• 4.3. Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems
• 7.2.1. Unique and threatened systems
  

4.2.2 How potentially could climate change affect human systems?

The following IPCC documents from the
WG II Technical Summary support the Level 3 passage:

• 4.1. Water resources
• 4.2. Agriculture and food security
• 4.3. Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems
• 4.4. Coastal zones and marine ecosystems
• 4.5. Human settlements, energy, and industry
• 4.6. Insurance and other financial services
• 4.7. Human health
  

Projected adverse impacts based on models and other studies include:

• A general reduction in potential crop yields in most tropical and sub-tropical regions for most projected increases in temperature [4.2. Agriculture and food security]
• A general reduction, with some variation, in potential crop yields in most regions in mid-latitudes for increases in annual-average temperature of more than a few degrees C [4.2. Agriculture and food security]
• Decreased water availability for populations in many water-scarce regions, particularly in the sub-tropics
  [4.1. Water resources]
• An increase in the number of people exposed to vector-borne (e.g., malaria) and water-borne diseases (e.g., cholera), and an increase in heat stress mortality
  [4.7. Human health]
• A widespread increase in the risk of flooding for many human settlements (tens of millions of inhabitants in settlements studied) from both increased heavy precipitation events and sea-level rise
  [4.5. Human settlements, energy, and industry]
• Increased energy demand for space cooling due to higher summer temperatures. [4.5. Human settlements, energy, and industry]

Projected beneficial impacts based on models and other studies include:

• Increased potential crop yields in some regions at mid-latitudes for increases in temperature of less than a few degrees C [4.2. Agriculture and food security]
• A potential increase in global timber supply from appropriately managed forests
  [4.3. Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems]
• Increased water availability for populations in some water-scarce regions—for example, in parts of southeast Asia
  [4.1. Water resources]
• Reduced winter mortality in mid- and high-latitudes
• Reduced energy demand for space heating due to higher winter temperatures.
  [4.5. Human settlements, energy, and industry]

4.3. What other major impacts could climate change possibly have?

4.3.1 Could climate change have major consequences?

The following IPCC documents from the
WG II Technical Summary support the Level 3 passage:

• 3.5. Scenarios of the 21st century
• 4.6. Insurance and other financial services
• 6. Adaptation, sustainable development, and equity
• 7.2.4. Extreme weather events
  

4.3.2. What is the risk of large-scale and possibly irreversible impacts?

The following IPCC documents from the
WG II Technical Summary support the Level 3 passage:

• 3.5. Scenarios of the 21st century
• 5.7. Polar regions
• 7.2.5. Large-scale singular events
  

4.3.3. What are Some Examples of the Projected Changes and their Impacts?

The following IPCC documents from the
WG II Technical Summary support the Level 3 passage:

• 4.1. Water resources
• 4.2. Agriculture and food security
• 4.3. Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems
• 4.4. Coastal zones and marine ecosystems
• 4.5. Human settlements, energy, and industry
• 4.6. Insurance and other financial services
• 4.7. Human health
• 5.1.1. Water resources
• 5.2.4. Extreme weather events
• 5.4.2. Ecosystems
• 5.8. Small island states
• 7.2.4. Extreme weather events

4.4. What should be done?

The following IPCC documents from the
WG II Technical Summary support the Level 3 passage:

• 6. Adaptation, sustainable development, and equity

4.4.1. Who will be affected?

The following IPCC documents from the
WG II Technical Summary support the Level 3 passage:

• 6.1. Adaptive capacity
  see also:
• 5.1.7. Adaptive capacity
• 5.2.7. Adaptive capacity
• 5.3.5. Key adaptation options
• 5.4.6. Adaptive capacity
• 5.6.1. Communities and urban infrastructure
• 5.6.2. Water resources and aquatic ecosystems
• 5.7. Polar regions
• and 5.8.1. Equity and sustainable development for regional-scale information

Benefits and costs of climate change effects have been estimated in monetary units and aggregated to national, regional, and global scales.

• 7.2.2. Aggregate impacts
• 7.2.3. Distribution of impacts
• 4.6. Insurance and other financial services

4.4.2. How can vulnerability be reduced?

The following IPCC documents from the WG II Technical Summary support the Level 3 passage:

• 6.2. Development, Sustainability, and Equity
  

Contributors: IPCC references come from  
IPCC WG II SPM,
other references are selected by
GreenFacts

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