| "Table 1: Estimates of confidence in
observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events.
The table depicts an assessment of confidence in observed changes
in extremes of weather and climate during the latter half of the 20th
century (left column) and in projected changes during the 21st century
(right column)a. This
assessment relies on observational and modelling studies, as well
as physical plausibility of future projections across all commonly
used scenarios and is based on expert judgement (see Footnote
4). [Based upon Table
9.6] |
 |
| Confidence in observed changes (latter
half of the 20th century) |
Changes in Phenomenon |
Confidence in projected changes (during
the 21st century) |
| |
| Likely |
Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over nearly all
land areas |
Very likely |
| Very likely |
Higher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days and frost days
over nearly all land areas |
Very likely |
| Very likely |
Reduced diurnal temperature range over most land areas |
Very likely |
| Likely, over many areas |
Increase of heat index
12 over land areas |
Very likely, over most areas |
| Likely, over many Northern Hemisphere mid- to high latitude land
areas |
More intense precipitation eventsb |
Very likely, over many areas |
| Likely, in a few areas |
Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought |
Likely, over most mid-latitude continental interiors (Lack of consistent
projections in other areas) |
| Not observed in the few analyses available |
Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensitiesc |
Likely, over some areas |
| Insufficient data for assessment |
Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensitiesc |
Likely, over some areas |
| |
| a
For more details see Chapter
2 (observations) and Chapters
9, 10
(projections).
b For other areas
there are either insufficient data or conflicting analyses.
c Past and future
changes in tropical cyclone location and frequency are uncertain."
Source
& © : IPCC TAR TS of WG1
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