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Projected Arctic Surface Air Temperatures

Projected Arctic Surface Air Temperatures 2000-2100 60°N - Pole: Change from 1981-2000 average: The ten lines show air temperatures for the region from 60°N to the pole as projected by each of the five ACIA global climate models using two different emissions scenarios. The projections remain similar through about 2040, showing about a 2°C temperature rise, but then diverge, showing increases from around 4° to over 7°C by 2100. The full range of models and scenarios reviewed by the IPCC cover a wider range of possible futures. Those used in this assessment fall roughly in the middle of this range, and thus represent neither best- nor worst-case scenarios.

Projected Arctic Surface Air Temperatures

Source: ACIA Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment  (2004),
 Key Finding #1, p.27

Related publication:
Arctic Climate Change homeArctic Climate Change
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1000 years of changes in carbon emissions

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Projected Surface Air Temperature change 1990-2090

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The Gwich’in and the Porcupine Caribou Herd

A permafrost primer

Seals Become Elusive for Inuit in Nunavut

Observed Climate Change Impacts in Sachs Harbour, Canada

Indigenous knowledge and observations of current trends

Case study of interacting changes: Saami reindeer herders

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Footnotes