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Source: IPCC TAR TS of WG1 

Table 1: Estimates of confidence in observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events. The table depicts an assessment of confidence in observed changes in extremes of weather and climate during the latter half of the 20th century (left column) and in projected changes during the 21st century (right column)a. This assessment relies on observational and modelling studies, as well as physical plausibility of future projections across all commonly used scenarios and is based on expert judgement (see Footnote 4 ). [Based upon Table 9.6 ]

Confidence in observed changes (latter half of the 20th century) Changes in Phenomenon Confidence in projected changes (during the 21st century)
Likely Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over nearly all land areas Very likely
Very likely Higher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days and frost days over nearly all land areas Very likely
Very likely Reduced diurnal temperature range over most land areas Very likely
Likely, over many areas Increase of heat index 12 over land areas Very likely, over most areas
Likely, over many Northern Hemisphere mid- to high latitude land areas More intense precipitation eventsb Very likely, over most areas
Likely, in a few areas Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought Likely, over most mid-latitude continental interiors (Lack of consistent projections in other areas)
Not observed in the few analyses available Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensitiesc Likely, over some areas
Insufficient data for assessment Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensitiesc Likely, over some areas

a For more details see Chapter 2 (observations) and Chapters 9, 10 (projections).

b For other areas there are either insufficient data or conflicting analyses.

c Past and future changes in tropical cyclone location and frequency are uncertain.

Source: IPCC TAR TS of WG1 

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