Languages:
 

Analysis of inter-model consistency in regional relative warming

Regions are classified as showing either

  • agreement on warming in excess of 40% above the global average (‘Much greater than average warming'),
  • agreement on warming greater than the global average (‘Greater than average warming'),
  • agreement on warming less than the global average (‘Less than average warming'), or
  • disagreement amongst models on the magnitude of regional relative warming (‘Inconsistent magnitude of warming').

There is also a category for agreement on cooling (which never occurs).

A consistent result from at least seven of the nine models is deemed necessary for agreement. The global annual average warming of the models used span 1.2 to 4.5°C for A2  and 0.9 to 3.4°C for B2 , and therefore a regional 40% amplification represents warming ranges of 1.7 to 6.3°C for A2  and 1.3 to 4.7°C for B2 .

[Based on Chapter 10 , Box 1 , Figure 1 ]

Related publication:
Climate Change (2001) homeClimate Change 2001 Assessment
Other Figures & Tables on this publication:

Adaptive Capacity, Vulnerability, and Key Concerns by Region

Facts on environmental matters

Table SPM.1 Estimates of potential global greenhouse gas emission reductions in 2010 and in 2020

The Emissions Scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

Expert Links on Climate Change

Expert Links on Climate Change

Links on Climate Change

Expert Links on Climate Change

Expert Links on Climate Change

Expert Links on Climate Change

Expert Links on Climate Change

Expert Links on Climate Change

Other views on Climate Change

Footnotes for the Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Working Group III

Footnotes for Table 1 of IPCC SPM WG II

Footnotes for the Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Working Group 1

Footnotes for the Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Working Group II

Variations of the Earth's surface temperature for :

Indicators of the human influence on the atmosphere during the Industrial Era

The global mean radiative forcing of the climate system for the year 2000, relative to 1750

Simulated annual global mean surface temperatures

The global climate of the 21st Century

Documented Climate Change Impacts

Figure SPM-2 - Reasons for Concern

Figure SPM-3 - Projected Changes in Annual Runoff

Carbon in Oil, Gas and Coal Reserves Compared with Historic Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions (in gigatonnes)

Footnotes to Table SPM-1 (Question 6.2.2)

Figure 8.1 Precipitation

Figure 8.2 Hurricanes

Schematic of observed variations of the temperature indicators / the hydrological and storm-related indicators

Many external factors force climate change

The annual mean change of the temperature (colour shading) and its range (isolines)

Analysis of inter-model consistency in regional relative warming

GCRIO

UNFCCC

Pew Climate

NCDC

Climate Ark

Climatic Research Unit

CICERO

World Business Council for Sustainable Development

Expert Links on Climate Change