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Analysis of inter-model consistency in regional relative warming

Regions are classified as showing either

  • agreement on warming in excess of 40% above the global average (‘Much greater than average warming'),
  • agreement on warming greater than the global average (‘Greater than average warming'),
  • agreement on warming less than the global average (‘Less than average warming'), or
  • disagreement amongst models on the magnitude of regional relative warming (‘Inconsistent magnitude of warming').

There is also a category for agreement on cooling (which never occurs).

A consistent result from at least seven of the nine models is deemed necessary for agreement. The global annual average warming of the models used span 1.2 to 4.5°C for A2  and 0.9 to 3.4°C for B2 , and therefore a regional 40% amplification represents warming ranges of 1.7 to 6.3°C for A2  and 1.3 to 4.7°C for B2 .

[Based on Chapter 10 , Box 1 , Figure 1 ]

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