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Energy Technologies Scenarios to 2050

5. How can technologies be efficiently deployed?

  • 5.1 Regulation
  • 5.2 Incentives
  • 5.3 Public opinion

The source document for this Digest states:

Governments must enhance deployment programmes, for
										technologies such as solar energy
Governments must enhance deployment programmes, for technologies such as solar energy
Source: Johan Bolhuis

Deployment and technology learning

Most new technologies have higher costs than the incumbents. It is only through technology learning as a result of marketplace deployment that these costs are reduced and the product adapted to the market. Governments must enhance their deployment programmes. Second-generation renewables, for example solar and biofuels, are amongst the technologies with the greatest potential. In the ACT Map scenario, we estimate that USD 2.8 trillion needs to be spent between now and 2050 on the additional costs (above market value) of deploying new technology. For the BLUE Map scenario, the figure is USD 7 trillion.

Source & ©: IEA,  Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 :
Scenarios and strategies to 2050. Executive Summary. (2008)
, Deployment and technology learning. p.8.

5.1 Regulation

The source document for this Digest states:

The barriers to new technology deployment are not always economic. To overcome these barriers, carefully designed regulations and standards are often the most effective policy measures. Tough efficiency regulations for buildings, appliances and vehicles will be essential in all scenarios. In both developed and developing countries, enhancing efficiency regulations, and strengthening their enforcement often represent attractive, cost-effective policy options for immediate action. A critical element for the success of the BLUE scenarios will be public acceptance of standards necessary to achieve very low-energy and zero-energy buildings and a four-fold reduction in the CO2 intensity of vehicles.

Source & ©: IEA,  Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 :
Scenarios and strategies to 2050. Executive Summary. (2008)
, Deployment and technology learning. p.8-9.

5.2 Incentives

The source document for this Digest states:

Private-sector investment is – and will remain – the primary facilitator of technology deployment and diffusion. The IEA has discussed the implications of the BLUE and ACT scenarios with chief technology officers from 30 leading international energy companies. They stressed the urgent need to design and implement a range of policy measures that will create clear, predictable, long-term economic incentives for CO2 reduction in the market. Only on this basis will business be empowered to undertake the huge investment programmes required.

This analysis does not attempt to specify the mechanisms that will be needed, recognising that this is to some extent the subject of negotiations in the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. For the ACT scenarios, we have estimated that these mechanisms will need to be sufficient to incentivise technologies which, when fully commercialised, have a marginal cost of USD 50 per tonne of CO2 saved. For BLUE, the figure is at least USD 200 per tonne of CO2 saved, and could be as high as USD 500 if the progress of key technologies is disappointing. The incentives need to be applied globally, within all major economies, through a variety of policy measures.

These do not necessarily have to be uniform incentives with the same value for all technologies. Especially in the BLUE scenarios, it may be appropriate to have targeted schemes for the most expensive technologies. Packages of measures, which could take a variety of forms, need to be in place for OECD countries by 2020 and for other major countries by 2030. The BLUE scenario assumes significant further tightening beyond these dates. To achieve full impact, and for a smooth transition, it is essential that the expectation of the targets and incentives is clearly established well in advance.

Source & ©: IEA,  Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 :
Scenarios and strategies to 2050. Executive Summary. (2008)
, Deployment and technology learning. p.9.

5.3 Public opinion

The source document for this Digest states:

Governments will need to give a lead to public opinion, making the connection between the urgent need to address climate change, which is widely recognised, and specific projects required, which often face public opposition. Neither the ACT nor the BLUE scenarios can be achieved without a major shift in priorities, and in the BLUE scenarios, this needs to be radical and urgent.

Source & ©: IEA,  Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 :
Scenarios and strategies to 2050. Executive Summary. (2008)
Deployment and technology learning. p.9.


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