Table SPM-3. (WGI) Projected globally averaged surface warming and sea level rise at the end of the 21st century.
| Case |
Temperature Change
(°C at 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999) a |
Sea Level Rise
(m at 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999) |
Table notes:
a These estimates are assessed from a hierarchy of models that encompass a simple climate model, several Earth Models of
Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), and a large number of Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulaion Models (AOGCMs).
b Year 2000 constant composition is derived from AOGCMs only.
NA = not available |
| |
Best estimate |
Likely range |
Model-based range excluding future rapid dynamical changes in ice flow |
| Constant Year 2000 concentrations b |
0.6 |
0.3 – 0.9 |
NA |
| B1 scenario |
1.8 |
1.1 – 2.9 |
0.18 – 0.38 |
| A1T scenario |
2.4 |
1.4 – 3.8 |
0.20 – 0.45 |
| B2 scenario |
2.4 |
1.4 – 3.8 |
0.20 – 0.43 |
| A1B scenario |
2.8 |
1.7 – 4.4 |
0.21 – 0.48 |
| A2 scenario |
3.4 |
2.0 – 5.4 |
0.23 – 0.51 |
| A1FI scenario |
4.0 |
2.4 – 6.4 |
0.26 – 0.59 |
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: 
"Mitigation, Summary for Policymakers", p10
