TFE.8, Figure 1 - Temperature increases in different scenarios

Temperature increases in different scenarios

TFE.8, Figure 1 - Global mean temperature increase since 1861–1880 as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. (a) Decadal average results are shown over all CMIP5 Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) and Earth System Models (ESMs) for each RCP respectively, with coloured lines (multi-model average), decadal markers (dots) and with three decades (2000–2009, 2040–2049 and 2090–2099) highlighted with a star, square and diamond, respectively. The historical time period up to decade 2000–2009 is taken from the CMIP5 historical runs prolonged by RCP8.5 for 2006–2010 and is indicated with a black thick line and black symbols. Coloured ranges illustrate the model spread (90% range) over all CMIP5 ESMs and EMICs and do not represent a formal uncertainty assessment. Ranges are filled as long as data of all models is available and until peak temperature. They are faded out for illustrative purposes afterward. CMIP5 simulations with 1% yr–1 CO2 increase only are illustrated by the dark grey area (range definition similar to RCPs above) and the black thin line (multimodel average). The light grey cone represents this Report’s assessment of the transient climate response to emissions (TCRE) from CO2 only. Estimated cumulative historical CO2 emissions from 1870 to 2011 with associated uncertainties are illustrated by the grey bar at the bottom of (a). (b) Comparison of historical model results with observations. The magenta line and uncertainty ranges are based on observed emissions from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) extended by values of the Global Carbon project until 2010 and observed temperature estimates of the Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set 4 (HadCRUT4). The uncertainties in the last decade of observations are based on the assessment in this report. The black thick line is identical to the one in (a). The thin green line with crosses is as the black line but for ESMs only. The yellow-brown line and range show these ESM results until 2010, when corrected for HadCRUT4’s incomplete geographical coverage over time. All values are given relative to the 1861–1880 base period. All time-series are derived from decadal averages to illustrate the long-term trends. Note that observations are in addition subject to internal climate variability, adding an uncertainty of about 0.1°C. (c) Cumulative CO2 emissions over the entire industrial era, consistent with four illustrative peak global temperature limits (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C and 3°C, respectively) when taking into account warming by all forcers. Horizontal bars indicate consistent cumulative emission budgets as a function of the fraction of models (CMIP5 ESMs and EMICs) that at least hold warming below a given temperature limit. Note that the fraction of models cannot be interpreted as a probability. The budgets are derived from the RCP8.5 runs, with relative high non-CO2 forcing over the 21st century. If non-CO2 are significantly reduced, the CO2 emissions compatible with a specific temperature limit might be slightly higher, but only to a very limited degree, as illustrated by the other coloured lines in (a), which assume significantly lower non-CO2 forcing. Further detail regarding the related Figure SPM.10 is given in the TS Supplementary Material. {Figure 12.45}

Source: IPCC  Climate Change 2013: Technical Summary, p.104

Related publication:
Climate Change homeClimate Change: 2013 IPCC Update
Other Figures & Tables on this publication:

Box TS.1 - Treatment of Uncertainty

Figure TS.1 - Multiple complementary indicators of a changing global climate

Figure TS.2 - Change in surface temperature over 1901–2012

Figure TS.3 - Ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica

TFE.1, Figure 1 - Changes in sea surface salinity

TFE.1, Figure 2 - Changes in precipitation over 20th century

TFE.1, Figure 3 - Projected changes in precipitation, 21st century

TFE.2, Figure 1 - Comparison of observed trends with previous projections.

TFE.2, Figure 2 - Compilation of paleo sea level data

Figure TS.4 - Annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions

Figure TS.5 - Atmospheric composition.

Figure TS.6 - Radiative forcing and Effective radiative forcing of climate change during the Industrial Era

Figure TS.7 - Radiative forcing of climate change during the Industrial Era shown by emitted components from 1750 to 2011

Figure TS.8 - (Upper) Global anthropogenic present-day emissions weighted by the Global Warming Potential and the Global Temperature change Potential

Figure TS.9 - Global temperatures with and without anthropogenic forcing

Box TS.3, Figure 1 - Trends in temperature changes for the last few decades.

TFE.3, Figure 1 - Observed globally and annually averaged CO2 concentrations in parts per million since 1950 compared with projections from the previous IPCC assessments. Observed global annual CO2 concentrations are shown in dark blue.

Figure TS.10 - Likely ranges of warming trends.

TFE.4, Figure 1 - The Earth’s energy budget from 1970 through 2011

TFE.5, Figure 1 - Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Figure TS.11 - Simulated and observed 1951–2011 trends in the Southern Annular Mode index by season

Figure TS.12 - Comparison of observed and simulated change in the climate system, at regional scales and global scales

Box TS.4, Figure 1 - Summary of how well the current-generation climate models simulate important features of the climate of the 20th century

Box TS.5, Figure 1 - Simulations and reconstructions of the climate of the last millennium.

Box TS.6, Figure 1 - Modeled patterns of temperature and precipitation changes.

TFE.6, Figure 1 - Climate sensitivity

TFE.6, Figure 2 - Climate response

Figure TS.13 - Decadal prediction forecast quality of several climate indices.

Figure TS.14 - Synthesis of near-term projections of global mean surface air temperature

Figure TS.15 - Annual mean temperature change

Figure TS.16 - Maps of multi-model results for the scenarios in 2081–2100 of average percent change in mean precipitation

Figure TS.17 - Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September over the late 20th century and the whole 21st century for the scenarios

Figure TS.18 - Northern hemisphere snow cover and permafrost area over the 21st century

Figure TS.19 - Compatible fossil fuel emissions simulated by the CMIP5 models for the four RCP scenarios

Figure TS.20 - Time series (model averages and minimum to maximum ranges) and maps of multi-model surface ocean pH

TFE.7, Figure 1 - Percentage of CO2 pulse remaining in the atmosphere after a number of years

TFE.7, Figure 2 - Comparison of carbon cycle feedback metrics between the ensemble of seven General Circulation Models

Figure TS.21 - Projections of global mean sea level

Figure TS.22 - Projections from process-based models of global mean sea level

Figure TS.23 - Sea level rise in different scenarios

TFE.8, Figure 1 - Temperature increases in different scenarios

Figure TS.24 - Future change in monsoon statistics between the present-day (1986–2005) and the future (2080–2099)

Figure TS.25 - Standard deviation in CMIP5 multi-model ensembles of sea surface temperature variability over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean

Figure TS.26 - Projected changes in tropical cyclone statistics.

TFE.9, Figure 1 - Global projections of the occurrence of extreme events

Table TS.1 - Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and global mean sea level rise for the mid- and late 21st century relative to the reference period of 1986–2005.

Table TS.2 - Overview of projected regional changes and their relation to major climate phenomena.

TFE.9, Table 1 - Extreme weather and climate events: Global-scale assessment of recent observed changes, human contribution to the changes and projected further changes for the early (2016–2035) and late (2081–2100) 21st century