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Table TS.1 - Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and global mean sea level rise for the mid- and late 21st century relative to the reference period of 1986–2005.

  2046–2065 2081–2100
Notes:
a Based on the CMIP5 ensemble; anomalies calculated with respect to 1986–2005. Using HadCRUT4 and its uncertainty estimate (5−95% confidence interval), the observed warming to the reference period 1986−2005 is 0.61 [0.55 to 0.67] °C from 1850−1900, and 0.11 [0.09 to 0.13] °C from 1980−1999, the reference period for projections used in AR4. Likely ranges have not been assessed here with respect to earlier reference periods because methods are not generally available in the literature for combining the uncertainties in models and observations. Adding projected and observed changes does not account for potential effects of model biases compared to observations, and for natural internal variability during the observational reference period. {2.4; 11.2; Tables 12.2 and 12.3}

b Based on 21 CMIP5 models; anomalies calculated with respect to 1986–2005. Where CMIP5 results were not available for a particular AOGCM and scenario, they were estimated as explained in Chapter 13, Table 13.5. The contributions from ice sheet rapid dynamical change and anthropogenic land water storage are treated as having uniform probability distributions, and as largely independent of scenario. This treatment does not imply that the contributions concerned will not depend on the scenario followed, only that the current state of knowledge does not permit a quantitative assessment of the dependence. Based on current understanding, only the collapse of marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet, if initiated, could cause global mean sea level to
rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century. There is medium confidence that this additional contribution would not exceed several tenths of a metre of sea level rise during the 21st century.

c Calculated from projections as 5−95% model ranges. These ranges are then assessed to be likely ranges after accounting for additional uncertainties or different levels of confidence in models.
For projections of global mean surface temperature change in 2046−2065 confidence is medium, because the relative importance of natural internal variability, and uncertainty in non-greenhouse gas forcing and response, are larger than for 2081−2100. The likely ranges for 2046−2065 do not take into account the possible influence of factors that lead to the assessed range for near-term (2016−2035) global mean surface temperature change that is lower than the 5−95% model range, because the influence of these factors on longer term projections has not been quantified due to insufficient scientific understanding. {11.3}

d Calculated from projections as 5−95% model ranges. These ranges are then assessed to be likely ranges after accounting for additional uncertainties or different levels of confidence in models. For projections of global mean sea level rise confidence is medium for both time horizons.
  Scenario Mean Likely rangec Mean Likely rangec
Global Mean Surface
Temperature Change (°C)a
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP6.0
RCP8.5
1.0
1.4
1.3
2.0
0.4 to 1.6
0.9 to 2.0
0.8 to 1.8
1.4 to 2.6
1.0
1.8
2.2
3.7
0.3 to 1.7
1.1 to 2.6
1.4 to 3.1
2.6 to 4.8
  Scenario Mean Likely ranged Mean Likely rangedd
Global Mean Sea Level
Rise (m)b
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP6.0
RCP8.5
0.24
0.26
0.25
0.30
0.17 to 0.32
0.19 to 0.33
0.18 to 0.32
0.22 to 0.38
0.40
0.47
0.48
0.63
0.26 to 0.55
0.32 to 0.63
0.33 to 0.63
0.45 to 0.82

Source: IPCC  Climate Change 2013: Technical Summary, p.90

Related publication:
Climate Change (2013) homeClimate Change: 2013 IPCC Update
Other Figures & Tables on this publication:

Box TS.1 - Treatment of Uncertainty

Figure TS.1 - Multiple complementary indicators of a changing global climate

Figure TS.2 - Change in surface temperature over 1901–2012

Figure TS.3 - Ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica

TFE.1, Figure 1 - Changes in sea surface salinity

TFE.1, Figure 2 - Changes in precipitation over 20th century

TFE.1, Figure 3 - Projected changes in precipitation, 21st century

TFE.2, Figure 1 - Comparison of observed trends with previous projections.

TFE.2, Figure 2 - Compilation of paleo sea level data

Figure TS.4 - Annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions

Figure TS.5 - Atmospheric composition.

Figure TS.6 - Radiative forcing and Effective radiative forcing of climate change during the Industrial Era

Figure TS.7 - Radiative forcing of climate change during the Industrial Era shown by emitted components from 1750 to 2011

Figure TS.8 - (Upper) Global anthropogenic present-day emissions weighted by the Global Warming Potential and the Global Temperature change Potential

Figure TS.9 - Global temperatures with and without anthropogenic forcing

Box TS.3, Figure 1 - Trends in temperature changes for the last few decades.

TFE.3, Figure 1 - Observed globally and annually averaged CO2 concentrations in parts per million since 1950 compared with projections from the previous IPCC assessments. Observed global annual CO2 concentrations are shown in dark blue.

Figure TS.10 - Likely ranges of warming trends.

TFE.4, Figure 1 - The Earth’s energy budget from 1970 through 2011

TFE.5, Figure 1 - Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Figure TS.11 - Simulated and observed 1951–2011 trends in the Southern Annular Mode index by season

Figure TS.12 - Comparison of observed and simulated change in the climate system, at regional scales and global scales

Box TS.4, Figure 1 - Summary of how well the current-generation climate models simulate important features of the climate of the 20th century

Box TS.5, Figure 1 - Simulations and reconstructions of the climate of the last millennium.

Box TS.6, Figure 1 - Modeled patterns of temperature and precipitation changes.

TFE.6, Figure 1 - Climate sensitivity

TFE.6, Figure 2 - Climate response

Figure TS.13 - Decadal prediction forecast quality of several climate indices.

Figure TS.14 - Synthesis of near-term projections of global mean surface air temperature

Figure TS.15 - Annual mean temperature change

Figure TS.16 - Maps of multi-model results for the scenarios in 2081–2100 of average percent change in mean precipitation

Figure TS.17 - Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September over the late 20th century and the whole 21st century for the scenarios

Figure TS.18 - Northern hemisphere snow cover and permafrost area over the 21st century

Figure TS.19 - Compatible fossil fuel emissions simulated by the CMIP5 models for the four RCP scenarios

Figure TS.20 - Time series (model averages and minimum to maximum ranges) and maps of multi-model surface ocean pH

TFE.7, Figure 1 - Percentage of CO2 pulse remaining in the atmosphere after a number of years

TFE.7, Figure 2 - Comparison of carbon cycle feedback metrics between the ensemble of seven General Circulation Models

Figure TS.21 - Projections of global mean sea level

Figure TS.22 - Projections from process-based models of global mean sea level

Figure TS.23 - Sea level rise in different scenarios

TFE.8, Figure 1 - Temperature increases in different scenarios

Figure TS.24 - Future change in monsoon statistics between the present-day (1986–2005) and the future (2080–2099)

Figure TS.25 - Standard deviation in CMIP5 multi-model ensembles of sea surface temperature variability over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean

Figure TS.26 - Projected changes in tropical cyclone statistics.

TFE.9, Figure 1 - Global projections of the occurrence of extreme events

Table TS.1 - Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and global mean sea level rise for the mid- and late 21st century relative to the reference period of 1986–2005.

Table TS.2 - Overview of projected regional changes and their relation to major climate phenomena.

TFE.9, Table 1 - Extreme weather and climate events: Global-scale assessment of recent observed changes, human contribution to the changes and projected further changes for the early (2016–2035) and late (2081–2100) 21st century