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Figure TS.12 - Comparison of observed and simulated change in the climate system, at regional scales and global scales

Comparison of observed and simulated change in the climate system

Figure TS.12 - Comparison of observed and simulated change in the climate system, at regional scales (top panels) and global scales (bottom four panels). Brown panels are land surface temperature time series, blue panels are ocean heat content time series and white panels are sea ice time series (decadal averages). Each panel shows observations (black or black and shades of grey), and the 5 to 95% range of the simulated response to natural forcings (blue shading) and natural and anthropogenic forcings (pink shading), together with the corresponding ensemble means (dark blue and dark red respectively). The observed surface temperature is from the Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set 4 (HadCRUT4). Three observed records of ocean heat content (OHC) are shown. Sea ice anomalies (rather than absolute values) are plotted and based on models in Figure 10.16. The observations lines are either solid or dashed and indicate the quality of the observations and estimates. For land and ocean surface temperatures panels and precipitation panels, solid observation lines indicate where spatial coverage of areas being examined is above 50% coverage and dashed observation lines where coverage is below 50%. For example, data coverage of Antarctica never goes above 50% of the land area of the continent. For ocean heat content and sea ice panels the solid observations line is where the coverage of data is good and higher in quality, and the dashed line is where the data coverage is only adequate. This figure is based on Figure 10.21 except presented as decadal averages rather than yearly averages. Further detail regarding the related Figure SPM.6 is given in the TS Supplementary Material. {Figure 10.21}

Source: IPCC  Climate Change 2013: Technical Summary, p.74

Related publication:
Climate Change (2013) homeClimate Change: 2013 IPCC Update
Other Figures & Tables on this publication:

Box TS.1 - Treatment of Uncertainty

Figure TS.1 - Multiple complementary indicators of a changing global climate

Figure TS.2 - Change in surface temperature over 1901–2012

Figure TS.3 - Ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica

TFE.1, Figure 1 - Changes in sea surface salinity

TFE.1, Figure 2 - Changes in precipitation over 20th century

TFE.1, Figure 3 - Projected changes in precipitation, 21st century

TFE.2, Figure 1 - Comparison of observed trends with previous projections.

TFE.2, Figure 2 - Compilation of paleo sea level data

Figure TS.4 - Annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions

Figure TS.5 - Atmospheric composition.

Figure TS.6 - Radiative forcing and Effective radiative forcing of climate change during the Industrial Era

Figure TS.7 - Radiative forcing of climate change during the Industrial Era shown by emitted components from 1750 to 2011

Figure TS.8 - (Upper) Global anthropogenic present-day emissions weighted by the Global Warming Potential and the Global Temperature change Potential

Figure TS.9 - Global temperatures with and without anthropogenic forcing

Box TS.3, Figure 1 - Trends in temperature changes for the last few decades.

TFE.3, Figure 1 - Observed globally and annually averaged CO2 concentrations in parts per million since 1950 compared with projections from the previous IPCC assessments. Observed global annual CO2 concentrations are shown in dark blue.

Figure TS.10 - Likely ranges of warming trends.

TFE.4, Figure 1 - The Earth’s energy budget from 1970 through 2011

TFE.5, Figure 1 - Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Figure TS.11 - Simulated and observed 1951–2011 trends in the Southern Annular Mode index by season

Figure TS.12 - Comparison of observed and simulated change in the climate system, at regional scales and global scales

Box TS.4, Figure 1 - Summary of how well the current-generation climate models simulate important features of the climate of the 20th century

Box TS.5, Figure 1 - Simulations and reconstructions of the climate of the last millennium.

Box TS.6, Figure 1 - Modeled patterns of temperature and precipitation changes.

TFE.6, Figure 1 - Climate sensitivity

TFE.6, Figure 2 - Climate response

Figure TS.13 - Decadal prediction forecast quality of several climate indices.

Figure TS.14 - Synthesis of near-term projections of global mean surface air temperature

Figure TS.15 - Annual mean temperature change

Figure TS.16 - Maps of multi-model results for the scenarios in 2081–2100 of average percent change in mean precipitation

Figure TS.17 - Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September over the late 20th century and the whole 21st century for the scenarios

Figure TS.18 - Northern hemisphere snow cover and permafrost area over the 21st century

Figure TS.19 - Compatible fossil fuel emissions simulated by the CMIP5 models for the four RCP scenarios

Figure TS.20 - Time series (model averages and minimum to maximum ranges) and maps of multi-model surface ocean pH

TFE.7, Figure 1 - Percentage of CO2 pulse remaining in the atmosphere after a number of years

TFE.7, Figure 2 - Comparison of carbon cycle feedback metrics between the ensemble of seven General Circulation Models

Figure TS.21 - Projections of global mean sea level

Figure TS.22 - Projections from process-based models of global mean sea level

Figure TS.23 - Sea level rise in different scenarios

TFE.8, Figure 1 - Temperature increases in different scenarios

Figure TS.24 - Future change in monsoon statistics between the present-day (1986–2005) and the future (2080–2099)

Figure TS.25 - Standard deviation in CMIP5 multi-model ensembles of sea surface temperature variability over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean

Figure TS.26 - Projected changes in tropical cyclone statistics.

TFE.9, Figure 1 - Global projections of the occurrence of extreme events

Table TS.1 - Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and global mean sea level rise for the mid- and late 21st century relative to the reference period of 1986–2005.

Table TS.2 - Overview of projected regional changes and their relation to major climate phenomena.

TFE.9, Table 1 - Extreme weather and climate events: Global-scale assessment of recent observed changes, human contribution to the changes and projected further changes for the early (2016–2035) and late (2081–2100) 21st century